by Cliff Corcoran |
November 19, 2008 10:10 am |
59 Comments
Ryan Dempster signed a four-year, $52 million deal to remain a Cub, while rumor has it the Yankees plan to offer A.J. Burnett $80 million for five years (fortunately one Yankee official has already dismissed those figures as “nonsense”). I’ll take a closer look at the Yankees’ options for outside pitching help tomorrow. Today, I want to look at the Yankees in-house options and prospects in an attempt to give some perspective to the proceedings.
2008 Yankee Starting Pitchers
Pitcher |
GS |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/BB |
SNLVAR* |
Mike Mussina |
34 |
3.37 |
1.22 |
4.84 |
5.6 |
Andy Pettitte (L) |
33 |
4.54 |
1.41 |
2.87 |
2.4 |
Darrell Rasner |
20 |
5.40 |
1.56 |
1.74 |
1.1 |
Chien-Ming Wang |
15 |
4.07 |
1.32 |
1.54 |
2.3 |
Sidney Ponson |
15 |
5.08 |
1.62 |
1.21 |
0.9 |
Joba Chamberlain |
12 |
2.76 |
1.30 |
2.96 |
2.4 |
Ian Kennedy |
9 |
8.35 |
1.96 |
1.00 |
-0.4 |
Phil Hughes |
8 |
6.62 |
1.71 |
1.53 |
0.3 |
Carl Pavano |
7 |
5.77 |
1.49 |
1.50 |
0.2 |
Alfredo Aceves |
4 |
2.74 |
1.22 |
1.13 |
1.0 |
Dan Giese |
3 |
3.78 |
1.01 |
2.60 |
0.5 |
Kei Igawa (L) |
1 |
13.50 |
3.25 |
n/a |
-0.3 |
Brian Bruney |
1 |
0.00 |
1.00 |
4.00 |
0.2 |
13 pitchers |
162 |
4.58 |
1.42 |
2.24 |
16.2 |
*Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Against Replacement: a Baseball Prospectus statistic based on win expectancy and adjusted for run support and the strength of opposing lineups that essentially measures wins above replacement level.
Removing the free agents, Rasner, who was sold to Japan, and Bruney, whose lone start was actually a preemptive relief appearance as Joe Girardi attempted to out-smart an early-season rain storm in Kansas City, the 2008 starters still in the organization are:
Pitcher |
Age* |
GS ’08 |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/BB |
SNLVAR |
Chien-Ming Wang |
29 |
15 |
4.07 |
1.32 |
1.54 |
2.3 |
Joba Chamberlain |
23 |
12 |
2.76 |
1.30 |
2.96 |
2.4 |
Phil Hughes |
22 |
8 |
6.62 |
1.71 |
1.53 |
0.3 |
Alfredo Aceves |
26 |
4 |
2.74 |
1.22 |
1.13 |
1.0 |
Ian Kennedy |
24 |
9 |
8.35 |
1.96 |
1.00 |
-0.4 |
Dan Giese |
31 |
3 |
3.78 |
1.01 |
2.60 |
0.5 |
Kei Igawa (L) |
29 |
1 |
18.00 |
3.66 |
n/a |
-0.3 |
*on Opening Day 2009
Even in that group, Giese is a career reliever, who successfully experimented with starting in triple-A last year, but is more likely to return to the bullpen, and Igawa is a three-time loser in pinstripes who is unlikely to get another chance without first having a breakthrough in the minors. Given the struggles of Kennedy and Hughes last year, the innings limits on Hughes and Chamberlain (both of whom will likely be capped at 150 frames in 2009), and questions about Hughes’ durability, it’s clear that the Yankees need outside help in the rotation for next year.
That said, in stark contrast to the first base depth chart I posted the other day, the Yankees do have pitching on the way in the minor leagues. To begin with, the only pitchers on the above list who will be in their 30s by this time next year are Giese and Igawa. Wang and Chamberlain, despite making just 15 and 12 starts respectively, were among the Yankees most valuable starters in 2008, with Chamberlain tying Andy Pettitte in SNLVAR despite making 21 fewer starts. Hughes remains the youngest pitcher on the list, and at 22 is just a year younger than top 2008 draft pick and former Stanford star Jeremy Bleich.
Hughes added a very effective cutter to his resume after returning from his rib injury last year and finished the season with a very strong eight-inning start for the big club. Still, he has been inconsistent in the Arizona Fall League (though he’s really there just to increase his innings for 2008) and the Yankees would be justified in starting him in Triple-A again in 2009 given his struggles this year and his still very young age. Still, he should ultimately make a significant number of starts for the Yankees in 2009 and be an important part of the 2010 rotation along with Wang and Chamberlain.
That already leaves just two more spots in the 2010 rotation, with many more arms on the way. Kennedy, a lesser prospect to begin with, was worse than Hughes in the majors this year, but better than him in Triple-A. Kennedy may need at least a half season if not more in Triple-A to regain both his game and the team’s confidence in his abilities, but he remains a potential mid-rotation starter, and pitched well for the Yankees in three starts at the end of the 2007 season. There’s a very real chance that he could be an important part of the 2010 rotation as well, leaving just one spot.
Enter Alfredo Aceves, a Mexican League product who raced through the Yankees system last year and profiles as a back-of-the rotation starter. Like Jorge Campillo, another Mexican League product who emerged as a reliable starter for the Braves this year, Aceves has no dominant pitch, doesn’t throw especially hard, and is unlikely to ever really dominate anyone, but throws strikes, does an excellent job of mixing his wide variety of pitches, and can keep opponents off balance. At worst, he’s an improvement on the Sidney Ponsons of the world. At best, he could be a solid number four or a very strong number five in a rotation led by Chamberlain, Wang, Hughes, and Kennedy and/or one of this winter’s free agents.
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